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The whole point of the Nunes memo was always to create a pretext for President Trump to try to take control of special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s probe, and it remains to be seen whether Trump will convince himself that it does give him this pretext.
But this is going to take a lot of self-deception on Trump’s part (not that he won’t rise to the occasion), and a lot of aggressive goading from his favorite cable news personalities — that is, if reality even matters in the least anymore. Because the memo itself is really just a bad joke.
The memo purports to show that the process by which the FBI and Justice Department obtained approval from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court to conduct surveillance on former Trump adviser Carter Page was deeply tainted. It does this by straining every which way to suggest that the basis for the warrant was the so-called “Steele dossier,” which contains Democratic-funded research by former British spy Christopher Steele. This is supposed to show that the genesis of the probe was grounded in partisan dirty tricks and that, as a result, the Mueller investigation — which grew out of the original FBI probe launched during the campaign — constitutes a “deep state” coup to overthrow the president, justifying an effort to quash or constrain it.
But the memo doesn’t come anywhere near to telling the story Trump’s allies have long hoped it would tell.
The memo claims that the dossier formed an “essential part” of the application for surveillance approval, which was first obtained in October of 2016, but also that the application “omitted” the fact that the research had been funded by Democrats. The memo also claims to have proof of Steele’s anti-Trump animus, characterizing a conversation in which he signaled his “passionate” opposition to Trump.
We already knew from media reports that the memo would claim this omission. But it is not clear that the omission is really a problem at all, and it’s not clear how much Steele’s feelings about Trump matter, either. As Fourth Amendment scholar Orin Kerr recently wrote, claiming these things isn’t enough. You’d have to establish that the funding and the bias actually do undermine the credibility of the source:
In the world of actual law, there needs to be a good reason for the judge to think, once informed of the claim of bias, that the informant was just totally making it up. … What matters is whether, based on the totality of the circumstances, the information came from a credible source.
The memo does not come even close to clearing that threshold.
To support the Nunes narrative, the memo also claims that former FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe testified to Congress that “no surveillance warrant would have been sought from the FISC without the Steele dossier information.” Similarly, as noted above, the memo also claims that the dossier formed an “essential part” of the surveillance application.
But it is simply impossible to know from this wording what these claims are actually supposed to mean. An “essential part” is very vague — probably intentionally so. Nor does the memo even say directly that McCabe claimed that no warrant would have been sought without the dossier itself; it only says McCabe claimed it would not have been sought without the information in it. This could mean that the information existed elsewhere and that the dossier merely corroborated it.
We just don’t know what these things mean. By themselves, they mean next to nothing. To get a clearer sense of what they do mean, and to fully evaluate their significance, we’d have to understand what else went into the surveillance application and what else investigators knew before making it.
And you know who does know that information? Rep. Adam B. Schiff (D-Calif.), who has authored a detailed rebuttal to the Nunes memo. As the Democrats put it in their response to the Nunes memo today:
The premise of the Nunes memo is that the FBI and DOJ corruptly sought a FISA warrant on a former Trump campaign foreign policy adviser, Carter Page, and deliberately misled the court as part of a systematic abuse of the FISA process. As the Minority memo makes clear, none of this is true. The FBI had good reason to be concerned about Carter Page and would have been derelict in its responsibility to protect the country had it not sought a FISA warrant.
If Schiff’s response is released, it would probably make the Nunes memo’s claims look even more comically thin.
There is also this remarkable passage from the Nunes memo, concerning former Trump campaign adviser George Papadopoulos, who is cooperating with Mueller as part of a plea deal:
The Papadopoulos information triggered the opening of an FBI counterintelligence investigation in late July 2016 by FBI agent Pete Strzok. Strzok was reassigned by the Special Counsel’s office … for improper text messages with his mistress, FBI Attorney Lisa Page … where they both demonstrated a clear bias against Trump.
This is apparently supposed to show that the investigation was opened by a biased FBI agent. But it actually shows that the FBI investigation predated the supposed misuse of the Steele dossier, and it shows that the cause of the investigation was information provided by Papadopoulos, which is what the New York Times reported. Remember, this Times report was widely mocked by Trump allies. Yet the memo actually lends that story more credence and, in the process, undercuts the whole alt-narrative that the genesis of the probe was illegitimate.
Some conservatives reached the same conclusion:
If the origins of the investigation actually supported the Nunes narrative, you’d think his memo would have hinted at it. But it did not.
It might get even worse from here, as Schiff’s response would also probably fill in details on the genesis of the probe that Nunes’s memo only hinted at, making the memo’s glaring omission on this point look even sillier. By the way, even if you think that this memo did reveal some troubling conduct on the part of Strzok, he was reassigned by Mueller, which the memo actually concedes in an effort to create the aura of scandal.
Up until now, Republicans have been touting this memo as the blockbuster that will bring the entire Russia investigation crashing down. One Trump ally described it as “worse than Watergate.” Trump had reportedly told friends, as CNN reported, that the memo “would make it easier for him to argue the Russia investigations are prejudiced against him.” Sean Hannity said the revelations in the memo “makes Watergate like stealing a Snickers bar from a drugstore”; he told his viewers it constitutes “the biggest political scandal in American history.”
When you step back from the memo’s details, the whole affair looks even more ridiculous. That’s because this entire “scandal” centers only on the surveillance of Page.
The answer to all those questions is no. Page is a peripheral figure at best. Even if the memo did depict what it sets out to depict about the surveillance of Page, it wouldn’t change a thing about the overall Russia scandal. But the memo doesn’t even do that.
A Democratic memo written to rebut the Republican document says that the F.B.I. was more forthcoming with the surveillance court than the Republicans say. The F.B.I. told the court that the information it received from Mr. Steele was politically motivated, although the agency did not specifically identify the information as financed by Democrats, according to two people familiar with the Democratic memo. …
Again, the rebuttal memo, if released, will likely make Nunes’ effort look even more absurd.